According to the Annuarium Statisticum Ecclesiae published each year by the Vatican secretariat of state, nearly half the Catholics of the whole world – 47.8 percent, to be precise – are in the Americas. And to a very large extent, 40 percent of the global total, in Latin America, from Mexico to Tierra del Fuego.
But the Annuarium identifies Catholics with the baptized. Who are many more than the Catholics who declare themselves as such.
For comparison, a touchstone can be taken in the recent survey carried out by the Pew Research Center in Washington, in six of the most populous Latin American countries : Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, in a span of time from 2013 to 2024, coinciding with the pontificate of Francis, the first South American pope.
In Argentina, where according to the Annuarium the baptized are 94 percent of the population, Catholics who declared themselves so were 71 percent in 2013 and 58 percent in 2024, with a drop of 13 points in 11 years.
In Colombia, against 93 percent baptized, Catholics were 79 percent in 2013 and 60 percent in 2024, with a drop of 19 points.
In Mexico, against 91 percent baptized, Catholics were 81 percent in 2013 and 67 percent in 2024, with a drop of 14 points.
In Peru, against 89 percent baptized, Catholics were 76 percent in 2013 and 67 percent in 2024, with a drop of 9 points.
In Brazil, against 84 percent baptized, Catholics were 61 percent in 2013 and 46 percent in 2024, with a drop of 15 points.
In Chile, against 74 percent baptized, Catholics were 64 percent in 2013 and 46 percent in 2024, with a drop of 18 points.
The general drop in Catholics is matched in these same countries by an increase in Protestants of various denominations, who in 2024 were 29 percent of the population in Brazil, 19 percent in Chile, 18 percent in Peru, 16 percent in Argentina, 15 percent in Colombia, and 9 percent in Mexico. But with moderate increases compared to 2013, only 3 percentage points in Brazil and even lower in the other countries.
Strongly on the rise, instead, are the “unaffiliated,” that is, those who declare themselves atheists, agnostics, or in any case – and they are the majority – not members of any religion. In Chile they grew from 16 percent of the population in 2013 to 33 percent in 2024, in Argentina from 11 to 24, in Colombia from 6 to 23, in Mexico from 7 to 20, in Brazil from 8 to 15, in Peru from 4 to 12.
And those swelling the ranks of the “unaffiliated” are largely Catholics born and raised as such but who later left the Church. In Chile, 19 percent of Catholics switched to “unaffiliated” and 6 percent became Protestant ; in Mexico, 15 and 4 ; in Colombia, 13 and 8 ; in Argentina, 12 and 8. The exceptions are Brazil and Peru, where the switch to Protestantism exceeded that to “unaffiliated.” In Brazil, 13 percent of Catholics became Protestant, compared to 7 percent who switched to “unaffiliated.” In Peru, 9 percent compared to 7.
In all six of these countries, more than 90 percent of the population say they believe in God. But only in Brazil, Peru, Colombia, and Mexico do a large majority of Catholics – 85, 68, 64, and 57 percent, respectively – deem religion “very important” to them, while in Chile, 48 percent define it as such, and in Argentina, 37.
And this differentiation is also reflected in religious practice, which sees weekly participation at Mass of 41 percent of Catholics in Mexico, 40 percent in Colombia, 36 percent in Brazil, 27 percent in Peru, but only 12 percent in Argentina and 8 percent in Chile.
Conversely, both the importance of religion in itself and weekly practice garner distinctly higher support among the adherents to Protestantism. And this also in Argentina and Chile, where weekly attendance at services by Protestants is a good five times higher than that of Catholics.
The switch of many Catholics to the ranks of the “unaffiliated” associates Latin America with Europe. Nestor Da Costa, a Uruguayan sociologist of religion, comments in an interview with Mauro Castagnaro in the latest issue of "Il Regno:" “A path outside of institutions allows for an interiority perceived as more free, and this drives many to leave the Churches and others to remain, but in marginal places and with an attitude similar to that of those who have exited. Also in the historic Churches, in fact, this spiritual individualism is registered, with a maximum of 10 percent of the faithful who accept all the dogmas.”
But what distinguishes Latin America from Europe is the strong presence on the subcontinent of new denominations of Protestant Churches, the Pentecostal ones, born from the revival phenomena that occurred in the United States at the beginning of the 20th century, and the more recent neo-Pentecostal and Evangelical ones (see photo © Afp / Jorge Uzon), which penetrated Latin America starting in the 1970s and brought a “prosperity theology” in tune with the spirit of the times : individualism, utilitarianism, the search for immediate solutions.
The historic Protestant Churches, instead – Lutheran, Calvinist, Methodist, Baptist – Da Costa notes – “are experiencing the same crisis as the Catholic Church, but, being smaller, they feel it more keenly.” In the past, “they produced figures of great quality ; it should suffice to consider that the little Methodist Church of Uruguay brought forth Pastor Emilio Castro, general secretary of the World Council of Churches from 1985 to 1992,” but “although they still often have excellent pastors, they are not capable of mobilizing.”
Instead, “the largest numbers of believers are in the traditional Pentecostal Churches, like the Assemblies of God in Brazil, which comprise half of all Evangelicals.” As for the neo-Pentecostal Churches, “membership is much more tenuous, which also makes divisions easier : the Universal Church of the Kingdom of God was founded in 1977 by Edir Macedo when he separated from his brother-in-law, Romildo Soares, who founded the International Church of the Grace of God. There is a sort of ‘religious nomadism’ here, with people moving from one Church to another. Once again, everything falls on the individual.”
And within the Catholic Church ? With the near disappearance of communities linked to liberation theology and great distress for the movements marked by the emergence of sexual abuse within them, the bulk of Latin American Catholics are divided between more or less staunch conservatives and, above all, Catholics who “navigate by sight,” taking elements from diverse experiences and sensibilities, under the banner of a pronounced spiritual individualism.
In Da Costa’s judgment, it is precisely these latter who constitute “perhaps the majority” of those who call themselves Catholic in Latin America today. On the border with the “unaffiliated,” ever more numerous, among whom the professed atheists and agnostics are the smallest part, while the majority are either indifferent or continue to believe in God, but no longer do so belonging to a Church.
(Translated by Matthew Sherry : traduttore@hotmail.com)
— — — —
Sandro Magister is past “vaticanista” of the Italian weekly L’Espresso.
The latest articles in English of his blog Settimo Cielo are on this page.
But the full archive of Settimo Cielo in English, from 2017 to today, is accessible.
As is the complete index of the blog www.chiesa, which preceded it.